Offseason checklist for Ottawa Senators

The offseason has arrived for three-quarters of the NHL for teams that either missed the playoffs or were eliminated in the first round.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Ottawa.

Expectations were high for the Senators heading into the season.  While they moved Alex DeBrincat, they brought in Vladimir Tarasenko to help cover DeBrincat’s production.  They’d have a full season of Jakob Chychrun this time around, and they hoped that Joonas Korpisalo would stabilize things between the pipes.  Not much went according to plan, however, resulting in both GM and coaching changes.  Steve Staios recently checked one big item off their to-do list with Travis Green being named as their new head coach, but there is still plenty to work on in the coming months.

Add defensive help

On paper, the Senators have a solid top four on the back end but that hasn’t translated to much success on the defensive side of things.  The last time they finished better than 20th in goals allowed was back in 2016-17; they were 26th in that regard this season.  Part of that is goaltending — which has its own section coming up — but defensive structure has been a consistent issue for them.  That was part of the reason Jacques Martin was brought in as the interim coach down the stretch, to help bring in some more defensive fundamentals.

When it comes to their back end, Ottawa has some openings for upgrades.  Erik Brannstrom isn’t a guarantee to be tendered a $2M qualifying offer with arbitration eligibility while Travis Hamonic is more of a seventh option at most at this point of his career.  Jacob Bernard-Docker is still developing and could become a reliable defender at some point but his spot isn’t entirely secure either.

One complicating factor Staios might encounter is Chychrun’s situation.  He’s entering the final year of his contract, one that pays a team-friendly $4.6M.  It’s going to cost considerably more than that to re-sign him, however, and Chychrun didn’t exactly give off the impression that he’s eager to sign a long-term extension this summer.  If that is indeed the case, Staios might have to look at the possibility of moving him which won’t exactly help the state of their blueline.

There’s some reason for optimism when it comes to Ottawa’s back end.  A return to health for Thomas Chabot should help things while continued improvement from Jake Sanderson is also likely.  But even if they keep Chychrun, more help is needed.  And if they don’t keep him, they’re probably going to need to try to dip into the free-agent waters to try to replace him.

Re-sign Pinto

It was a strange year for Shane Pinto.  After being unable to come to terms on a new contract, he wound up being suspended for the first half of the season for violating the NHL’s sports wagering rules.  The Sens then rescinded all previous offers, and in the end, he had to settle for the pro-rated league minimum upon being cleared to return, an amount that was lower than his qualifying offer last summer.

To his credit, Pinto didn’t show any signs of rust upon his return in January.  Instead, he became an impact player right away and recorded nine goals and 18 assists (a career-high) in the final 41 games while seeing his ice time jump to over 18 minutes a night.

Now, Pinto finds himself in exactly the same situation as he did a year ago.  He’s a restricted free agent and still doesn’t have salary arbitration rights.  He also didn’t truly get the chance to prove that his 20-goal, 35-point showing wasn’t an outlier. While he impressed in the final three months of the year, it’s still only a half-season sample size.

Have the Sens seen enough to commit a long-term agreement to him?  If they’re trying to buy extra years of club control, that should push the AAV past at least the $5M mark, possibly even past the $6M threshold on a max-term deal.  He’s 140 games into his NHL career, however, with just 70 points to his name.  Suffice it to say, going that approach comes with some risk, albeit with a higher reward if he’s able to establish himself as a full-time top-six middleman.

With Ottawa’s cap situation and the fact they have other needs to fill, the safer route might be the one they ultimately take which would be a bridge deal.  Pinto is still four years away from UFA eligibility so they could work out a two-year agreement in the $3M-plus range, giving him an opportunity to demonstrate that he can maintain that level of production over a full season and giving Staios a chance to address some other needs in the coming months.

Look for goalie upgrade

On top of looking for help on the back end, Staios should also be looking for an upgrade between the pipes.  This has been somewhat of an annual exercise in recent years as former GM Pierre Dorion tried several different options, none of whom have panned out as well as they hoped for.

Last summer, they brought in Korpisalo on a five-year, $20M contract.  Both the term and price point seemed particularly high for someone who had to take a greater than 50% pay cut the year before.  Having said that, there was a bit of an upside play with the contract if he could have maintained his level of performance from 2022-23.  He didn’t.  Instead, Korpisalo’s numbers were worse than his career averages, resulting in some very inconsistent play from their starter.  With four years left on that deal, it’s hard to see there being much of a trade market for him.

Anton Forsberg, who they thought could be part of their longer-term plans after a breakout year in 2021-22, has also struggled the last couple of years.  He doesn’t have much trade value either, but he’s at least on an expiring contract, so his spot is the one they can try to upgrade on.

Yes, Mads Sogaard is waiting in the wings (and needs a new deal this summer), but he has another year of waiver exemption left, so they can keep him stashed at AHL Belleville getting as much playing time as possible.  He’s undoubtedly part of the longer-term plans but for 2025-26 and beyond.

That’s a small window for Staios to work with as they’ll either be looking for a one-year deal in free agency or trying to trade for one on an expiring contract, using Forsberg’s $2.75M as an offset.  They’re probably not getting a legitimate starter in this scenario, but someone with a track record of even consistently average goaltending would help to shore up a long-standing weakness and would go a long way toward trying to get them back into the playoff picture.

Consider core shakeup

On paper, the Senators have a pretty strong core of now-young veterans who were supposed to represent the anchor points of their rebuild and help move them past it.  Despite that, it hasn’t exactly led to much offensive success.  The last time the Sens were in the top half of the NHL in goals scored was back in 2015-16 when none of their current players were in the fold.

At first glance, there’s reason to believe that there is room for internal growth and they’ll be banking on Green helping make that happen.  But should they run it back with the same core group and hope that Green taking over and the team ideally staying healthier — particularly Josh Norris — will be enough of a difference to get them into the postseason?

There are cases to be made both for and against doing that.  This team should be better than it has been based on the talent it has assembled.  It’s certainly plausible that one day, things will come together.  And if it does, they’ll have some key pieces on market-value (or below market-value) deals for multiple years to come.  That’s a good spot to be in.

On the other hand, at some point, running the same core group out there and simply hoping things will work out better this time around has its risks.  It also doesn’t generally have the greatest track record of success.  And this is Dorion’s core group, so it stands to reason that Staios might want to put his own stamp on the team.

Fortunately for him, if he does want to shake up the core, the majority of their core pieces are on deals that already are or should be team-friendly at some point.  The exception would be Norris due to injuries but if he can stay healthy, that can still change.  That will give him options as most of the core players would have several suitors, positioning them to receive a significant return.  Would a move like that help or at least be worth trying?  That’s what Staios and his management team will need to decide in the coming weeks.